Gwyn Roberts

27/01/2010 Author: Gwyn Roberts

Editor's View: 28 Jan 2010

Last week’s revelation that the Obama administration will eschew ‘softly, softly’ oversight for the sturm und drang of a revived Glass-Steagall Act hit Wall Street like a tonne of securitised debt. If this was the President trying to regain the initiative after Massachusetts, lower Manhattan would hate to see what a faltering performance in November’s senate wide elections could bring.

Paul Volcker’s roadmap for reform charters far rougher territory than many expected from one led by Timothy Geithner; A changed landscape will break the banks in two, forcing retail arms to split from trading businesses and push for the divestment of internal hedge funds and hedge fund investment.

However, let’s not get too concerned. Unlike Europe’s own AIFM, this is not legislation that unequivocally threatens the sector. It is draconian – and banks are lobbying hard to prevent it – but it also seems to hold as many opportunities as problems for our industry.

The sudden divestiture of large swathes of banking cash is a troubling thought. US banks account for a substantial amount of hedge fund assets – both through prop desks and client money. Any sudden retreat from the sector could create an uncomfortable vacuum, risking a tipping point of wider investor retraction. Yet, despite these obvious concerns, the industry does not expect a stampede, particularly as the majority of funds continue to perform well, despite the dischordant political background noise.

Instead, it is the potential upside that holds the greatest interest. Trades will be less crowded, talent will flow to the sector and M&A opportunities are legion. Last year’s BlackRock/BarCap deal shows that there is definitely an appetite for asset management tie-ups. The likelihood of JP Morgan spinning-off the mighty Highbridge may be mind boggling, but there will be a willing audience. Particularly among the long-only firms, who have long coveted the talent and fees at hedge funds.
The way ahead is confusing, but a crude political move could still provide a boon for the industry.
 

 

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