Gwyn Roberts

28/04/2010 Author: Gwyn Roberts

Editor's view: 29 April 2010

Opinion polls have been wrong before, and could certainly be wide of the mark next Thursday, when the UK elects its new Government. However, with the vast majority of pollsters indicating a stalemate, only the bravest of pundits are tipping an outright winner between Labour, the Conservatives and a newly invigorated Liberal Democrat party.

Yet a hung parliament could end up being a millstone, rather than a democratic milestone, for the hedge fund industry. The turmoil of a minority Government, or the fractious nature of an ideologically divided coalition, means vital issues, like the draft AIFM Directive, could corrode on the sidelines.

If this is the bad news, the really grim tidings are that the AIFM situation may not improve if any one party receives a majority. Gordon Brown could remain ensconced within No 10, but his hand will still be as far from the AIFM tiller as possible. Instead, city minister Paul Myners will continue to lead negotiations. In terms of industry knowledge, the ex-Gartmore chief knows far more than any other politician, but his political influence is low, while almost a year ago he appeared to kick-off Treasury negotiations with a near capitulation, rather than a resolution to neutralise the document’s protectionist bent.  

The Conservatives may do little better. The party’s plans to appoint a treasury minister with responsibility for Europe is an excellent idea, they also have the relevant free market credentials to challenge the draft. However, potential strengths are diminished by a poor choice of European friends – whatever David Cameron says, elements of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group really are the unacceptable face of European politics – while the Tories have a temperamental problem in engaging with Europe. A mindset that will hardly propel French and German hawks into compromise.

The polls may be wrong, but, until the UK and other European allies can convince the backers of the current AIFM draft to water down the document’s protectionist stipulations, it will continue to create problems for the hedge fund sector, regardless of next week’s victor. 

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