Tony Griffiths

23/03/2011 Author: Tony Griffiths

Nervous investors look to new frontier markets  

Despite a few isolated voices – Warren Buffett’s among them – advocating opportunity for the patient, the troubles in the Middle East and Japan have whipped most investors into a panic. Nervousness abounds; investors and managers have been pulling anything with exposure to the two regions.

While confusion has stifled the investment community, hedge fund managers have been busy identifying those countries that offer less hazardous opportunities. At this week’s Bloomberg Hedge Funds London event, speakers and panellists were asked to make their picks, and the results were a bit of an eye-opener.

Unsurprisingly, the likes of China and Russia fared well, while there was also backing for the US, but it was the frontier markets panel that provided the real gems.

Top picks included: Nigeria, for its oil production and strong banking sector; Kazakhstan, as a more liquid, safer way of accessing the Middle East; Ghana, for its new oil discoveries; and Zambia as a copper-producer with good political governance. Azerbaijan and Georgia also received a mention.

However, panellists Graham Stock, chief strategist at Insparo Asset Management, and Michel Danechi, partner at Armajaro Asset Management, made their boldest shouts with countries neighbouring, and recovering from, civil unrest. Stock suggested that the UAE and Qatar were still relatively safe bets, with Qatar benefiting from rising energy prices and relative political stability.

Danechi, meanwhile, plumped for Iran, for its sturdy stock exchange and “because no-one else is”, and, in the long-term, Egypt, for what could become a “good consumer story” down the line.

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